| 摘要: |
| 气候变化和城镇化建设使沿海地区面对自然灾害呈现出显著的脆弱性。以生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估模型的沿海脆弱性模块评价闽三角区域尺度的沿海脆弱性和人口风险，从中选取典型高风险的厦门市，从地理特征、气候胁迫和社会经济3个方面完善指标选取，基于模糊理论反映指标权重的模糊不确定性，细化厦门城市尺度的沿海脆弱性评价，分析模拟当前生境、无生境以及生境修复3种情景下的厦门市沿海脆弱性。结果表明：1）闽三角地区有44.6%的岸线沿海脆弱性较高，其中厦门市的沿海脆弱性和人口风险均较突出；2）自然生境对提升沿海岸线的防灾韧性具有重要作用，缺少自然生境将使厦门市风险高和较高的岸线增至34.7%；3）修复沿海生境能够在一定程度上提升岸线韧性，但难以满足高风险岸线的防灾需求，需以工程措施辅助提升岸线防护水平。研究关于提升海岸韧性的规划策略讨论，对沿海韧性防灾和生态修复等有所助益。 |
| 关键词: 环境科学 城乡规划管理 沿海脆弱性指数（CVI） 生态修复 海岸线 |
| DOI：10.14085/j.fjyl.2021.07.0010.07 |
| 分类号:TU 984.2；X 43 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（编号 52078330） |
|
| Coastal Vulnerability Assessment and Response Strategies of Fujian Delta Based on InVEST Model |
|
LUO Ziyuan, ZENG Jian
|
|
Tianjin University
|
| Abstract: |
| Climate change and urbanization have made coastal areas significantly vulnerable in the face of natural disasters. The coastal vulnerability module of the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs model is used to evaluate the vulnerability and population risk along the coastline of the Fujian Delta. Xiamen City, with a typical high risk, is selected for further simulation on the city scale. This research improves the index selection from three aspects, namely, geographical, climate-forced and socio-economic, and improves the evaluation method by reflecting the fuzzy uncertainty of index weight based on the fuzzy theory. It elaborates the coastal vulnerability evaluation on the city scale, and analyzes the coastal vulnerability of Xiamen under three scenarios of current habitat, non-habitat and habitat restoration. The results show that: 1) 44.6% of the coastline in the Fujian Delta is highly vulnerable, among which the coastal vulnerability and population risk of Xiamen are particularly prominent; 2) Natural habitats play an important role in improving the disaster prevention resilience along the coastline. The lack of natural habitats will increase the proportion of highly vulnerable coastline in Xiamen by 34.7%; 3) The restoration of coastal habitats can promote the shoreline resilience to a certain extent. However, it is difficult to meet the disaster prevention needs of high vulnerability and population risk shoreline. To protect shorelines with high risks, it is necessary to take engineering measures to assist ecological restoration. The strategies discussed to enhance coastal resilience are helpful for enhancing coastal resilience disaster prevention and ecological restoration. |
| Key words: environmental science urban and rural planning management coastal vulnerability index (CVI) ecological restoration coastline |
