| 摘要: |
| 科学客观评估海平面上升对海岸生态环境带来的风险是实现合理利用和开发海岸资源的关键。运用海平面影响湿地模型（SLAMM）定量模拟预测近期（2017—2030 年）、中期（2017—2050 年）和远期（2017—2100 年）海平面上升3 个不同阶段对广州海岸湿地景观空间分布和面积变化的影响，并对其生态系统服务价值变化进行定量评估。结果显示：1）近期海平面上升导致海岸湿地空间分布呈显著破碎化趋势，中期和远期的影响相对趋于稳定；2）盐沼、芦苇沼泽和红树林面积减少量变化显著，河口水域面积持续扩大，滩涂面积出现波动性变化；3）生态系统服务价值总量呈现“减少（近期）—增加（中期）—减少（远期）”的波动性变化特征，但最终总量减少，减少约435 492.59 万元，其中渔业生产和教育科研价值减少量变化显著，污染净化价值增加量变化显著，干扰调节价值波动性变化显著。 |
| 关键词: 风景园林 海平面 海岸湿地 生态系统服务 海平面影响湿地模型 |
| DOI：10.14085/j.fjyl.2019.09.0075.08 |
| 分类号:TU986 |
| 基金项目:广东省自然科学基金资助项目（编号2018A0303130017）；中国博士后科学基金资助项目（编号2017M610898） |
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| Impact of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Wetland Landscape Based on Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model |
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CHEN Chongxian, YANG Xiaohao, XIA Yu*
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South China Agricultural University
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| Abstract: |
| Scientifically and objectively assessing the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal ecological environment is the key to achieve rational utilization and development of coastal resources. By using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), we have made quantitative simulation and projected the short-term (2017—2030), mid-term (2017—2050) and long-term (2017—2100) sea level rise impacts on the Guangzhou coastal wetland change of area and spatial distribution, and further performed quantitative assessment of changes in the ecosystem service value. The results show that sea level rise in the short-term causes the spatial distribution of coastal wetlands towards significant fragmentation, and the mid-term and longterm impacts are relatively stable. The salt marsh, reed marsh and mangrove areas have been decreased dramatically, while the estuary water areas have continued expansion, and fluctuation changes occurred in the mudflat areas; The total value of ecosystem service is characterized with “decrease (short-term)-increase (midterm)-decrease (long-term)”, fluctuation, but finally the total amount of value was decreased, with the reduced sum of around 4,354.925,9 million yuan, of which the value of fishery production and education scientific research were decreased drastically, the value of pollution purification was increased significantly, and the fluctuation of interference regulation value was significant. |
| Key words: landscape architecture sea level coastal wetland ecosystem service sea level affecting marshes model |
| 引用本文: | 陈崇贤,杨潇豪,夏宇*.基于海平面影响湿地模型的海平面上升影响海岸湿地景观研究[J].风景园林，2019，26（9）：75-82. |
| CHEN Chongxian,YANG Xiaohao,XIA Yu*.Impact of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Wetland Landscape Based on Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model[J].Landscape Architecture Journal, 2019, 26(9):75-82. |
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