| 摘要: |
| 通过对陆地生态系统的碳储量研究与各类用地的碳排放与存储核算，能够有效量化碳排放，助力国土空间规划，并优化土地利用方式。以成德眉资地区为研究区，基于2000、2010、2020年的土地利用数据，耦合FLUS-InVEST模型对20年来的碳储量时空变化进行分析，并对2030年生态修复力度不同的3种情景下的碳储量进行了模拟预测。结果表明：2000—2020年，研究区因耕地与草地面积减少、固碳能力降低导致碳储量相应减少；2030年随着生态修复力度的加强，研究区的碳储量损失会逐渐减小，生态空间质量将得到更好的改善，生态系统固碳能力也将显著提升；现有的政策规划能很好地改善研究区未来碳储量薄弱空间，并有效提升其固碳能力。建议落实国土空间生态修复规划，多管齐下引领低碳生活，助力研究区实现碳中和目标。 |
| 关键词: 风景园林 FLUS-InVEST 模型 多情景模拟 碳储量 碳中和 生态修复 |
| DOI：10.14085/j.fjyl.2022.05.0038.07 |
| 分类号:TU982 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年基金（编号 31500581）；成都市科技项目（编号 2019-RK00- 00261-ZF）；2021 四川大学研究生培养教育创新改革项目（编号 GSALK2021021）；2021 四川大学基层教学组织特色品牌项目（编号 2021JCJX14） |
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| Temporal and Spatial Changes and Multi-scenario Simulation Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on FLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of Chengdu–Deyang–Meishan–Ziyang Area |
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ZHUANG Zixue, XIE Mengqing, ZHANG Wenping, WANG Qianna
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Sichuan University
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| Abstract: |
| Studying the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems and accounting for carbon emissions and storage of various land uses can support territorial spatial planning and optimize land use by effectively quantifying carbon emissions. Taking Chengdu–Deyang–Meishan–Ziyang Area in Sichuan Province as an sample, this research, based on land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, and coupled with the FLUS-InVEST model, analyzes the temporal and spatial changes of carbon storage in the past 20 years. It also simulates and predicts the carbon storage under three scenarios with different ecological restoration efforts in 2030. The result shows that from 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage in the study area decreases due to the degradation of cultivated land and grassland and the reduction in carbon sequestration capacity; by 2030, with the indentisfication of ecological restoration efforts, the carbon storage loss will gradually decrease, the quality of the ecological space will be further improved, and the carbon sequestration capacity of the ecosystem will also be significantly enhanced; in the future, existing policies and plans can well improve the weak points of carbon storage in the study area and effectively enhance carbon sequestration capacity thereof. This research proposes to the terrestrial spatial ecological restoration planning, lead a low-carbon life in a multi-pronged way, and help the study area to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. |
| Key words: landscape architecture FLUS-InVEST model multi-scenario simulation carbon storage carbon neutrality ecological restoration |
| 引用本文: | 庄子薛,谢梦晴,张文萍,王倩娜.基于FLUS-InVEST模型的碳储量时空变迁及多情景模拟预测——以成德眉资地区为例[J].风景园林，2022，29（5）：38-44. |
| ZHUANG Zixue,XIE Mengqing,ZHANG Wenping,WANG Qianna.Temporal and Spatial Changes and Multi-scenario Simulation Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on FLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of Chengdu–Deyang–Meishan–Ziyang Area[J].Landscape Architecture Journal, 2022, 29(5):38-44. |
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